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IRAN UPDATE October 18, 2007   IRAN AND THE BOMB: Ominous Nuclear Progress in Tehran Just how far are Iran’s mullahs from acquiring “the bomb?”  That’s the question at the center of a heated debate in Washington about what – exactly – to do about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and when to do it. To date, Bush Administration officials have taken a seemingly relaxed view of things.  In late August, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns provided a window into Administration thinking during a Radio Free Europe roundtable.  Asked for his view of Iran’s nuclear timeline, Burns demurred, pointing to an assessment “that our intelligence community has made in open congressional testimony.”  In that February 2007 testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell estimated that Iran “could produce a nuclear weapon by early to mid next decade.”  So, Burns concluded, “I believe that we’re still right to practice diplomacy.  We have time left for it.” Really?  Recent news from foreign quarters suggests the White House may have far less time than it thinks.  The French government now believes Tehran will have nearly 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges running by the end of this month, the Associated Press reported on October 3.  That’s because the UN’s atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has concluded that the regime will have 18 separate centrifuge cascades – totaling nearly 3,000 centrifuges –operational by late October. The news is deeply alarming.  The number 3,000 represents a key atomic threshold, according to the nuclear experts, because that number of centrifuges spinning continuously for one year will generate enough highly-enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon. All of which means that, barring technical glitches or other unforeseen events, Iran will have enough fissile material to field a nuclear weapon by sometime next fall – at the latest. In other words, time is running out.  Is the Administration paying attention, or does the State Department estimate still hold sway?

www.committeeonthepresentdanger.org. P.O. Box 33249, Washington DC 20003-3249 Contact: Larry Haas, larry@larryhaasonline.com. 202 257-9592

 

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