Return to Archive

IRAN UPDATE January 15, 2008 IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO The Mirage of a “Grand Bargain” Ever since the Bush Administration released its new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran last month, concluding that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, some Iranian experts have anticipated, and pushed for, a thaw in relations between Washington and Tehran. Some, like Vali Nasr and Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations, have argued that “[d]ialogue, compromise and commerce... are a means of providing Tehran with incentives to commit itself to regional stability.” Others, such as Flynt Leverett of the New America Foundation, have advocated for a post-NIE “reorientation of U.S. policy toward the Islamic Republic as profound as the one with U.S. policy toward China effected by President Nixon in the early 1970s.” But is such a “grand bargain” with the Islamic Republic likely, or even advisable? Forget the Bush administration, which advocates of a “grand bargain” often blame for the current chill in relations. It is Iranian officials, at the highest levels of that radical regime, who do not hide their contempt for the idea. “Cutting ties with the United States is one of our basic policies,” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, told students in the central city of Yazd just days ago. And while “[w]e have never said that they will be cut for ever,” Khamenei explained, “[t]he conditions of the U.S. government are such now that it is harmful for us to resume relations... Despite some talkative people’s claims, it has no benefit for the Iranian nation.” All of this pours more than a little cold water on the suggestion that Washington should push for an immediate rapprochement with Tehran. So, too, does Tehran’s increasingly reckless behavior near the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian speedboats recently tested the patience of U.S. naval forces in a confrontation that easily could have led to an outbreak of hostilities. For those who demand further reasons to eschew a push for closer bilateral ties, they include Iran’s enduring support for terrorism, its radical expansionist ideology, and its continuing threats against the West. But even if the United States ignored the hostile behavior and took a chance on nurturing warmer relations with the Islamic Republic, American officials would need someone to negotiate with. And, at least for now, the ruling ayatollahs don’t seem interested in mending fences.

www.committeeonthepresentdanger.org. P.O. Box 33249, Washington DC 20003-3249 Contact: Larry Haas, larry@larryhaasonline.com. 202 257-9592

 

 Return to Archive